The 2022 hurricane season is spinning up to be a busy one, according to the meteorological team at Colorado State University, which for years has been one of the more reliable predictors of tropical activity.
In its forecast released Thursday, the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science expects an above-average year, predicting 19 named storms this season — five more storms than what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration considers average, based on data collected from 1991 to 2020. Perhaps more eyebrow-raising, however, is its forecast of major hurricane production.
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU states in its report.
The prediction calls for four major hurricanes, which are at least Category 3 with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 mph. The average season has about three, according to the NOAA. Additionally, CSU is predicting above-average hurricane activity with nine hurricanes forecast for the season, two more than the average.
Guiding these predictions are high readings of sea-surface temperatures. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic areas are at about average surface temperatures. However, closer to the Sunshine State, sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean and most of the subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal.
CSU forecasters also looked at Pacific conditions and determined a weak La Niña event is in play — a climate phenomenon part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, or ENSO cycle, which describes the changes in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. An ENSO cycle is made up of three phases: a neutral phase, a warm phase (El Niño) and a cold phase (La Niña.)
On top of current weak La Niña conditions, meteorologists are predicting a lack of El Niño this summer and fall in the Pacific, which would typically create vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, preventing storm formation, said CSU professor Philip Klotzbach. The dual lack of presence combined with warmer waters is what is stewing the prediction for an overly active hurricane season.
CSU’s early season prediction falls in line with AccuWeather’s pre-hurricane season forecast, released last week, calling 16-20 named tropical systems just shy of last year’s 21 names but much lower than 2020′s record breaking season of 30 named systems.
The 2022 storm names are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter. The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
Although the CSU forecast appears relatively close to AccuWeather’s data and prediction, it also conceded that this is only a prediction.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April,” CSU said. “There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year.”
CSU’s prediction and confidence is largely built off of studies between 25 and 40 years of climate trends, and has improved upon its early forecasts by looking back on previous prediction models.
While climatologists are not using their crystal balls to suggest any location will definitely encounter a hurricane, CSU did create data outlining the probability each Gulf and East Coast state faces in a storm arriving within 50 miles of its border.
Using NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, CSU was able to determine Florida has the highest likelihood with a 96% probability of experiencing at least one named tropical storm near the peninsula. It also has a 75% chance of seeing at least one hurricane and a 44% chance of at least one major storm.
North Carolina, Louisiana and Texas also ranked high on the probability list of seeing a tropical storm come close.
CSU reinforced the idea behind releasing its early predictions and encouraged coastal residents to prepare for the worst.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” CSU stated.
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