BRASÍLIA, Brazil – Forecasters are tracking a subtropical depression off the coast of South America that is expected to become a rare tropical storm in a part of the Atlantic Ocean that is usually void of cyclone activity.
The Brazilian Navy last reported the cyclone being more than 160 miles to the southeast of Arraial do Cabo, a coastal town in the state of Rio de Janeiro.
The system brought heavy rain to parts of South America before pushing offshore, and because of its new proximity to the mainland, warnings have not been issued for coastal communities.
Ocean temperatures are plenty warm to support tropical cyclone activity, but upper-level winds are usually too hostile to support significant ones.
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Forecasters believe the cyclone could find a region of relaxed winds and strengthen into a subtropical storm during the workweek.
If the depression gains sustained winds of at least 40 mph, it will earn the name of Akará and be the first named system in the basin since 2022.
Forecast for the future subtropical storm
Forecast models show the system becoming better organized off the coast of South America over the next few days as it parallels the coast on a southward trajectory.
Water temperatures are estimated to be in the low to mid-80s, which is sufficient to support tropical cyclone activity.
As the cyclone spins in the ocean clockwise – opposite of a Northern Hemisphere hurricane due to the Coriolis effect – it is not expected to threaten any land areas.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, upper-level winds will become more hostile by mid-week and put a halt to the intensification process.
Some previous model runs showed the system gaining enough organization to near hurricane status, but the window of development is fairly short, which would not allow for significant intensification.
Hurricanes in the South Atlantic are extremely rare, and according to NOAA, there has been only one occasion of a hurricane off the coast of South America during the modern satellite era. Hurricane Catarina made landfall in southern Brazil as a Category 1 storm on March 27, 2004.
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Tropical cyclone naming process
Unlike other basins across the globe that are regulated by the World Meteorological Organization, the South Atlantic is unique as no one agency monitors the entire basin.
Over the last decades, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center has developed a naming list that is used year-round to identify cyclones that are south of the equator and west of longitude 20 degrees west.
The last name that was used from the list was Yakecan back in 2022. The subtropical cyclone formed off the coasts of Brazil and Uruguay before turning away from land and heading out into the open Atlantic.
There are currently 32 unused names on the list produced by the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center.
A cyclone is usually given a name when it has sustained winds of at least 40 mph, much like cyclones in the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Unlike basins monitored by the National Hurricane Center, the South Atlantic does not have a tropical cyclone season, meaning tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes form year-round.
Most tropical cyclone activity happens between December and May when the Southern Hemisphere is in its summer and fall.
Source: www.foxweather.com
